With three months left until the regular parliamentary elections in Armenia, their main participants are engaged in the regrouping of forces and have begun a system preparation for their participation in the election race. In our opinion, there will be several important points, including technological ones, which will distinguish the 2012 elections from the previous elections held in 2007: - First of all, it is the poor social conditions of the country's population. Even according to official data, the number of the poor has reached 1 million 200 thousand, which makes up about 36% of the population, including 21.3% of extremely poor citizens and 3% of beggarly ones. The situation in Armenian cities (except Yerevan) where 45.4% (i.e. almost half) of the population lives below the poverty line is especially problem-prone. Thus, the 2012 elections will take place in a complicated social situation, whereas the social situation in 2007 was certainly much better; - Secondly, there is a sharp increase in migration level. According to the same official data of Armenia's National Statistical Service, the total negative balance of those who left/ came to Armenia in the past two years (2010-2011) made 106 thousand. It is noteworthy that there has been a considerable outflow of population in Georgia and Azerbaijan too, but it is only in Armenia that this issue has been put on the political agenda. The outflow of the population in the 1990s could be explained by the war, the energy crisis, and a blockade imposed on Armenia, while now it is first of all the financial and economic policy of the government which stooges for the interests of oligarchs that is to blame for the current outflow; - The government of Serzh Sargsyan (we would like to remind you that the incumbent president served as head of the government in 2007-2008) and Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan turned out to be the most incompetent in the history of the Third Republic. Some Armenian experts considered as truly unique the circumstance that none of the promises from the current government's program has been properly fulfilled. No such thing happened before in the history of the Third Republic, even in the difficult 1990s, when a war was being waged. We should point out the circumstance that in 2012 the second four-year anti-corruption program will be completed. This program has been implemented in Armenia for eight years, with the financial support of the World Bank. The result of cooperation of the Prime Ministers - Republicans and international organizations in this issue is quite regrettable: instead of declining, corruption has become even more widespread; - There are quite a few signs indicating that for the first time in the past few years the external players have already decided on their priorities in the upcoming parliamentary elections. In particular, Washington and Brussels will give firm, perhaps even unprecedented support to the Republican Party of Armenia, as well as to the Heritage Party and Free Democrats Party. As regards Russia, most probably Moscow will - on a priority basis - support the Prosperous Armenia Party in the upcoming elections. As for Armenia's extra-parliamentary opposition - the Armenian National Congress (ANC), it is obvious that none of the external players backs the ANC now that three months remain until the parliamentary elections; - The Internet will become an important means of providing information and conducting PR campaigns during the pre-election struggle. According to the data of some experts, the number of Internet users in Armenia has reached 400 thousand; the number of participants of social networks has also grown considerably, with facebook.com and odnoklasniki.ru being the indisputable leaders. The number of the participants of facebook.com is going to increase to 250 thousand during the pre-election campaign, while the number of the participants in odnoklasniki.ru is comparable with the number of those participating in facebook.com; - According to some information, the price of one minute of advertising at the prime time on Public Television of Armenia will be 180 thousand drams (at the exchange rate of 385 drams per one dollar). By Armenian standards, it is quite a large sum of money. For example, the rates on private channels are the following: 25 thousand drams on Armnews channel and 30 thousand drams on Yerkir Media (the de facto channel of ARF-Dashnaktsutyun Party). Being guided by the high advertisement prices of the Public Television, the private television companies will certainly raise their rates for one minute of advertising time, thereby putting those participants of the election race, who are not rich, in a difficult position. In the opinion of Hmayak Hovhannisian - Chairman of the Association of Political Scientists of Armenia, former deputy of the Armenian parliament - three months prior to the elections, the political columns aspiring to gain seats in the National Assembly can be ranked as follows: - Group A: the Republican Party of Armenia, the Prosperous Armenia Party, and the ANC. It should be mentioned that the Prosperous Armenia Party and the ANC enjoy firm public support, whereas the Republicans who lack support will use the administrative resource, violence, criminals, and vote rigging in order to achieve the necessary results. All the political columns of Group A will easily pass the 5% or 7% (for blocs) threshold for election and will struggle to receive the greatest possible number of mandates in the parliament of the next term of legislature; - Group B, which includes the parliamentary opposition parties - the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun and the Heritage, as well as the Free Democrats Party. All the three parties will struggle to pass the 5% electoral threshold, and in case of a certain political spectrum and relatively fair elections, two of them (the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun and the Heritage Party) stand a chance to get into the parliament. As regards the Free Democrats Party, it can get into the parliament by either forming a bloc with the Heritage Party or reaching an agreement with it to include its candidates in the proportional representation list of that parliamentary party. It should be noted that the ANC, the Prosperous Armenia Party, the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun, the Heritage, and the Free Democrats are in support (in a varying degree) of holding fair and transparent elections in Armenia. Those parties that have problems with real public support, namely the the Republican Party of Armenia and the Country of Law Party, are not interested in fair elections. By David Petrosyan

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