President Serzh Sargsyan, as it is required by the Constitution, had a consultation with the political forces represented in the Parliament last week and decided to appoint Tigran Sargsyan, the representative of the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), as Prime Minister. Leaders of fractions “Armenian National Congress” (Levon Zurabyan) and “Heritage”/ “Free Democrats” (Ruben Hakobyan) refused to participate at the meeting. It is clear that the above-mentioned consultation had a formal nature, as the number of the seats controlled by the Republican Party and their partners from "Rule of Law" is enough to form the government.

 

Also note that Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian and Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian retained their seats. The appointment of both of these positions is in the competence of the President and the preservation of their portfolios means that the priorities in the foreign and defense policy will remain unchanged. The appointment of T. Sargsyan indicates that the financial, economic and social policy of the government will remain the same. The government will continue to represent and protect the interests of the oligarchs, big business and monopolies. Therefore, we must assume that the social situation will remain extremely tense. One should also not expect any major changes to the waiver of steps to reform the political and justice system or any positive steps in improving the situation and. This is indirectly confirmed by the annual report of the U.S. State Department section dedicated to Armenia (2012) on the observance of human rights and freedom in the world.

 

It is clear that this state of affairs contributes to the migration of population from the country (mainly to Russia). The opponents of the President and independent experts point to the fact that over the five-year period of his governance 250 thousand people have left the country.

 

In connection with the above-mentioned, let’s pay attention to the actions and statements of U.S. Ambassador to Armenia John Heffern. In particular, the U.S. Ambassador is de facto lobbying the entrance of the trading network "Carrefour" into the Armenian market. The messages and the promises of the government that the first hypermarket of the network will soon open alternate with the silence of the officials.  It is assumed that the opening of stores "Carrefour" will lead to a drop in prices of essential commodities in Armenia, which, according to some reports, are not that different from those in Western Europe. He also expressed his opinion about services of tourism, including the prices of air tickets and hotel services being very high. The U.S. Ambassador also noted that the government of his country is ready to support the liberalization of the issues related to the air traffic. John Heffern also expressed his hope that the opposition will fight peacefully on the forthcoming City Council elections, also that the ruling party, as well as all the other parties will refrain from handing out bribes and abusing the administrative resources. 

As a matter of a fact, the Ambassador points out that the Armenian government needs to fight against oligopolies, which means that the promises of T. Sargsyan concerning this important question remained only promises.

 

 

The question that Washington has the unconditional support of the administration of President Serzh Sargsyan and T. Sargsyan is not discussed. The support here is of high level. Moreover, we can safely say that no ruling administration in Yerevan, since the independence, received such level of support from the United States.

Then how can the above-mentioned actions and statements made by the U.S. Ambassador to Armenia be explained (we exclude the possibility that they could be improvised)?

As it seems to the author, at the end of the last presidential elections, in which, according to official figures, more than 600 thousand voted against the course conducted by the government and the President, the U.S. Embassy in Armenia is concerned about the potential of serious social riots and other disturbances.  So J. Heffern, in fact, is showing the way to the government and the administration in order to minimize the likelihood of social upheaval.

This creates quite an impression that the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan is interested in the social stability much more than the authorities of Armenia.

According to the author, this is due to the fact that unlike President Serzh Sargsyan and Prime Minister T. Sargsyan, Americans remember what happened on March 1, 2008 very well. They view these events as a protest and rebellion against political and social injustice, as well as widespread corruption and they fear that similar events could repeat. Therefore, supporting the government and the administration in Armenia, they are trying to push them to real reforms and changes. In this case, Ambassador J.Heffern is so consistent in his steps, that it would probably be right to give him a private room in the central government building. Meanwhile, the reluctance of the administration and the President to make any effective steps towards the reform is more than obvious. Otherwise, the U.S. Ambassador would not show such a public activity.

Another reason for such actions of the U.S. Ambassador is that the U.S. diplomats cannot possibly build relationships on a profitable configuration with parliamentary forces such as “Prosperous Armenia”, “Armenian National Congress” and the traditional ARF-Dashnaktsutyun. Neither everything went smoothly in relations with "Heritage" party and its leader Raffi Hovannisian.  American diplomats realize that the social turmoil could lead to political force majeure situation, where, as of today, they do not have an adequate level of control over a number of important factors.

 

In addition, the actions of J.Heffern also point to the fact that the current support of Washington vacillates. While President Sargsyan and his administration are on a course to meet their obligations towards Washington / Brussels, that support will continue. However, it is unclear how long this situation will persist. In any case, it cannot last a very long time.

 

 

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