http://www.nt.am/ru/news/223693/

 

«THE GEOPOLITICAL LOVE» OF PUTIN AND ERDOGAN ROUGHLY DEVELOPS SO PUTIN DIDN’T EVEN MANAGE TO TAKE OUT «THE TURKISH KNIFE FROM THE HIS BACK».

The beginning of the article – here: http://www.prezidentpress.ru/news/4049-o-geopoliticheskoy-situacii-vokrug-nagornogo-karabaha-prodolzhenie.html.

On July 4 Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the CSTO gathered in Armenia, and on July 6 in Georgia wait for the Secretary of State John Kerry. On July 8 in Warsaw the summit of NATO during which the announcement of rapprochement of NATO and Georgia is expected will begin. Meanwhile, Russia deepens presence in South Caucasus – the parliament of Armenia ratified the agreement on creation joint Armenian-Russian air defense, having granted to Russia the right for decision-making in the sky over Armenia.

Dividing lines on South Caucasus show a tendency to «dyking». The agreement on euro association Georgia where there was also an infrastructure of NATO came into force. Armenia continues to swear in fidelity to the Euroasian unpromising union and to be involved in plans of Russia. It isn’t excluded that after air defense the agreement on a joint management and land forces, and the authorities of Armenia will be signed, and also political forces which entered with them «consensus» ratify also this document.

The watershed between Georgia and Armenia goes deep, as opposed to the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. The Russian newspaper «Izvestiya» writes that «the Russian plan» of the Karabakh settlement assumes opening of borders with Armenia of Turkey and Azerbaijan. S. Lavrov spoke about it in clear in 2008.

The Russian plan for opening of borders can become reality parallel to leveling of the sovereignty of Armenia. The other day the Turkish foreign minister declared though then I disavowed the statement, about possibility of granting air base to Russia Indzhirlik. Allegedly Turks do it against fight of IGIL in Syria to whom they that and «gave birth». And war in Syria doesn’t promise a fast achievement of peace and military operations will proceed for certain and in the 2017th year. Illusions about that the 2016th year will bring the world to Syria irrevocably vanished. The Vienna process in the form in which it reflected last year obviously didn’t work. War in Syria was finally internationalized without thinking about international law and the national sovereignty. Various groups of the countries put on this or that party in the Syrian civil war and without having opportunity to finish war diplomatically, try against the political deadlock, to improve the positions and positions of the wards military means, providing them the weapon, experts, the aircraft and other resources directed on increase of fighting capacity of belligerent parties. Despite optimistic statements of politicians and military in the spring of 2016, IGIL it was steadier in the military plan, than it was necessary in bravura propaganda statements for a victory over IGIL-ohm and a fast capture of its capital to Er-Rakka. It is still possible to note that there is a serious underestimation of military opportunities of ISIL and stability of its government institutions in controlled territories. It leads to what even the operations supported by armed forces of the USA and the Russian Federation not always achieve success, about it experts from Washington — https://www .washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamic-state-routs-pentagon-backed-syrian-rebels-in-fresh-setback-for-us-strategy/2016/06/29/41833a16-3e0b-11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html write. I believe that unsuccessful approaches to Rakka from the North and the southwest will provide the American and Russian military a lot of food for thought. Against the political deadlock across Syria and lack of resolute military victories in the Syrian war, the Kurdish factor supported by the USA and the countries of NATO continues to gain strength. Kurds let and slowly, but move ahead to the solution of a question of control over all Syrian-Turkish border that will allow them to intensify processes on construction of a national autonomy or even the sovereign state at the expense of territories of Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq. It on the one hand testifies about full defeat of the Turkish strategy of the last years in Northern Syria, and on the other hand creates long-term problems for Assad in case the option with federalization of Syria isn’t realized as it can lead or to disorder of Syria in the current borders, or to war of Syrians with Kurds, about it experts of our Academy of Geopolitics gave the assessment (see: «About an active phase of military aggression of Turkey against Syria» — http://www.prezidentpress.ru/news/4020-ob-aktivnoy-faze-voennoy-agressii-turcii-protiv-sirii.html ).

Coming back to «the next gift» of Turkey to Russians in the form of the Air Force base to Indzhirlik, it is necessary to notice that this base isn’t necessary, but they and Turks need to be convinced that they divide the general territory one, without strangers. The statement for Indzhirlik’s is a statement for joint control over territories, divided between Russia and Turkey. Not incidentally it at once got approval of the State thought of Russia. After that it was possible and to disavow the statement. But in Damascus seriously are afraid that new «the geopolitical love» of Putin and Erdogan can end with «delivery» of the President of Syria Bashar Al — Assad; Putin it is ready «to merge» Assad… (See a photo No. 1).

But, if Turkey is ready to share Indzhirlik to what Russia is ready? Russia gradually privatizes Armenia, having received this time and its sky. Tomorrow Russian command can decide that on the basis of Erebuni of the city of Yerevan belonging to Russia the Turkish planes can sit down. However, only after implementation of the plan «territories in exchange for peacekeepers» and opening of borders by Turkey and Azerbaijan.

For this purpose it is necessary to block border of Armenia with Georgia and Iran. The Russian policy deepens dividing lines between Georgia and Armenia, and on this direction it is necessary to expect undesirable development about what we already wrote here:http://www.prezidentpress.ru/news/4027-prognoz-po-geopoliticheskoy-situacii-v-armenii.html.

Concerning Iran — Armenia is extremely limited though on the Armenian-Iranian border also there are border troops of FSB of Russia. Iran was already tired to call the leadership of Armenia for sequence. We are convinced, what without active participation of Iran in permissions of the Karabakh conflict it is impossible what the president of Academy of Geopolitics, academician Arayik Sargsyan in the interview — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzRfpPQVEC0 .

In Armenia there is no the class capable to resist such development. Armenia hopes that the West will manage to fail the Russian-Turkish plan and not to allow ре — incarnation of the Russian-Turkish contract of 1921 which divided the countries of South Caucasus. All understand that if to leave Russia one, it will settle the Karabakh problem as doesn’t arrange neither Armenia, nor Azerbaijan, neither the EU, nor the USA. Process proceeds and in order that the conflict didn’t serve interests of Russia. It is very important for Russia, but to it won’t allow to solve the conflict in own way.

Coming back to visit of the Foreign Minister of Germany F.V. Shtanymayer to Armenia, it is necessary to tell that Germany — the leader the dumbfounded ambassador of Brexit of Europe – found time for the Karabakh conflict. Secondly, Shteinmayer tried to use the positions of the acting chairman of OSCE and to show activity. And the third, Germany after Brexit found big force in Europe. So, it can become an important factor.

Now it will be more difficult to Armenia to be integrated with Europe, the EU will lay down more conditions. Besides, positions of Germany in Europe will amplify,

and also USA.

That should be expected Armenia from the Russian-Turkish normalization?

These processes go extremely dynamically, and good from it you shouldn’t wait for anything. Again Armenia can appear between the Russian hammer and the Turkish anvil, and pressure upon Armenia can be aggravated. Now Russia will reckon less with Armenia. We have information that «romance novel» between Erdogan and Putinim develops very roughly, and they can will meet with each other before the planned meeting in China at the beginning of September within G-20. Putin is ready to receive Erdogan in Sochi on a visit at the end of this month, on extreme to a measure at the beginning of August, «the geopolitical love» of Putin and Erdogan roughly develops so Putin didn’t even manage to take out «the Turkish knife from the back» — https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=MtyaZ_2k1SI

Arayik Sargsyan, President of Academy of Geopolitics, academician, Honorable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia.

P.S.

Shortly on rest of Russians «Natasha» in Turkey.

The town governor Kemera Moustapha Gül (one leaders of the Turkish fascist organization «Grey Wolves» («Bozkurtlar») , whose organization decreased the Russian pilots of Su-24, on November 24, 2015 in the north of Syria, I asked families of the lost pilot of Su-24 Oleg Peshkov to accept the house in Kemera, and the park in Kemera by the name of Peshkov also suggested to call and to establish there a monument to the lost pilot. Certainly, all these signs of attention result first of all from unwillingness of Turkey to pay compensations at the state level, having got off with compensations to a family.

Here a problem that the question of the state compensation is in a hover. Russia will continue contact with Turkey concerning compensation of damage for brought-down Su-24, however difficult to predict results of these negotiations, the Assistant to the President Yury Ushakov reported. «There will be a contact in this respect, and to what results they will come, I don’t know», – transfers his words of RIA Novosti.

Some citizens on the one hand it is fair, and on the other hand fondly are indignant — a pier as so that, Turks of our pilot I brought down, crookedly apologized, and now inhabitants were going to the Turkish resorts. It isn’t patriotic. It is irresponsible.

Here it is just not necessary to be surprised and it was to be expected. From where to undertake desirable consciousness if notorious national idea which has to on plans of the Kremlin initiators of searches, this consciousness to bring up and generate, look for the 20th year. Whether a joke — in the 1996th year the late Boris Nikolaevich Yeltsin charged «to find national idea». Well it besides «Be enriched!», see Putin descendants — https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=z8IECLN9478, http://www.kp.ru/daily/26550.7/3566520/.

And so 20 years, the Kremlin authorities, the patriotic public speak «It is necessary from year to year!». Putin on my memory of times 6 or 7 called «Look for!», and then I told about abstract patriotism. The result both wasn’t, and isn’t present. Whether it is worth expostulating then on notorious Natasha? After all mass media (besides state) cultivated for years the thesis what to have a rest abroad coolly. That consumption of the benefits, is one of the supreme values. That first of all it is necessary to bring up — the qualified consumer. If someone counted, and here now the Russian authorities will start from heels of social rollers in a network, will appeal in patriotic feeling and on civil consciousness, it is seen from insufficient understanding of a society organization in which Russians live.

The Russian authorities will definitely strongly not focus attention as not without sin because when «New Cold war» began with the USA, it became clear on it that against the state promotion about patriotism, the property abroad, not to mention offsprings who were trained not in blessed Russia, and in the spiritless West was found in many officials even after hails from the Kremlin. And if only authorities. «Idols of the nation» from soccer, having flashingly acted in France, left to have a rest generally not on patriotic and where far away abroad without meeting once again someone’s expectations. And if the millionaire football player has a rest somewhere away from the Homeland if the son of the prominent official, the friend V. Putin — V. Yakunin’s or the daughter S. Lavrov’s study as territories of «the probable opponent» why to abstract Natasha not to have a rest in Antalya, it than worse?

Here not in Natasha’s a problem, and in life of Russians, defining consciousness which simple appeals to patriotic feeling and civil consciousness not to correct.

Yesterday the brother of Peshkov killed by order of Erdogan of the Russian pilot of SU — 24 Oleg Peshkov, publicly declared that the house in the form of compensation from Turks won’t accept. Not all think in Russia as in the Kremlin, and it gives us hope that in Russia not all traitors, both money and material benefits not of the God!

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