Beginning of article here: «About Putin’s visit to China » — http://www.prezidentpress.ru/news/4060-o-vizite-putina-v-kitay.html.

About the New Customs code of the Euroasian Economic Union (EAES).

Until the end of September of the country of EAES have to direct to the Euroasian Economic Commission (EEC) the last editings in the draft of the new Customs code of the union. The document has to succeed the code of the Customs union and consolidate uniform norms of regulation on collecting import duties. Expansion of definition of Authorized Economic Operators will become the main innovation — after the adoption of the code they will be able to receive wider customs privileges.
EEK published the draft of the Customs code of EAES which has to replace the Customs code of the Customs Union (CU) adopted in 2009. The new version of the document which prepared since 2013, was planned to accept still at the end of last year, now its signing is expected only in December, 2016. In Sochi, the countries of the Euroasian economic union (it includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia), on August 12 this new project the project was previously approved by prime ministers of the countries of the union. And until the end of September of the country of EAES have to direct the last remarks, and in a month the commission will submit the final text of the code.
Russia supported transfer of powers on the supranational level, Kazakhstan, on the contrary — for preservation of national control over key decisions. The delay with adoption of the code, in particular, was caused by a large number of the editings directed by Kazakhstan at that time not ready to subscribe under the new document before the accession to the WTO. Also objections of Kazakhstan blocked also possibility of refusal of EAES of the principle of national residence — though earlier it in the commission was discussed. We consider that the code is generally devoted to specification of customs procedures.
The main changes designated in the draft of the code concern transition to electronic document flow and simplifications of customs procedures (it won’t be necessary to file documents on the basis of which the declaration is completed, release of goods will be reduced till four o’clock from the moment of registration of the declaration). Also the status of Authorized Economic Operators will change (UEO, category of suppliers who can use the simplified procedures). In the EU 15 thousand suppliers who are carrying out a half of all deliveries concern to such operators.
In addition in the project also possibility of recognition of foreign UEO (Authorized Economic Operators) on a mutual basis is written down. With a similar initiative, addressed to EEK the Government of China.
Methods of determination of customs cost when importing goods also are stated in the draft of the code. Regulation of export duties remains at the old level. Now they aren’t stated in the code, but are regulated by the international treaty of the countries of the HARDWARE. Now EEK will have to provide uniform application of provisions of the code. It is offered to transfer to the level of the commission also definition of conditions of transportations physical — persons, including norms of duty-free import. And it can cause big protests as natural persons somehow provide these the standard of living in these crisis times of economies of the countries.
It is necessary to tell that China is faced by a complex challenge of carrying out regional policy of the American models, in particular, according to the scheme of observance of balances of influence and an alignment of forces. In the Middle East China has to pursue balance policy between the Sunni and Shiite states that isn’t really simple as on Chinese in the region the Chinese-Pakistani relations have the politician a great influence. Pakistan not only tries to pursue policy of close cooperation with China against India and some factors in the Southern and Central Asia, but also on the Chinese policy in the Middle East, of course, protecting interests of the Sunni states. Saudi Arabia rather often uses long ago the relations with Pakistan in the direction of coordination of some questions with China. In particular, to the Sunni states in the region there was «clear» no aspiration of China to protect interests of Syria, and respectively, Iran. In turn, China uses the relations with Pakistan, trying to settle the relations with the Sunni countries of the Middle East, and also with some forces in Afghanistan.

At the same time, the similar model is possible and concerning Eurasia, meaning the territory of Russia and Central Asia. On this space of the purpose and the direction of strengthening of influence of China are quite possible. Most likely geopolitical and geoeconomic interests of China are located in Africa and China concentrated to Africa. According to Fox News (USA), China will build the first foreign outpost in Djibouti. The Chinese authorities approved construction of the first foreign military base of support on the African continent where warehouses with the weapon and fuel, and also military units will be located. Construction began on the coast of Djibouti, in 13 km from the largest American military base on the continent. The area of the Chinese outpost will make 400 thousand sq.m. Here warehouses for the weapon, services for operation of fleet and aircraft, and probably the contingent of the Chinese marines will be constructed. For China the similar base became the first behind borders of the state. Today the leader among the countries having outposts in other states are the USA. Their military bases can be found in 85 other countries of the world. About geopolitical opposition between China and the USA experts of our Academy wrote here: «Currency war of the USA against China: China wins » — http://clubvi .ru/news/2015/09/12/11%20sargsan/ andhttp://moskprf.ru/index.php/ru/index.php? option=com_content&view=article&id=19194:valyutnaya-vojna-ssha-protiv-kitaya-kitaj-pobezhdaet&catid=165&Itemid=838&lang=ru.

The USA and Western Europe aren’t interested in any way in these regions as and now they already got positions which allow them to observe the interests in the sphere of power and raw materials. Between the West and Russia fight not for Central Asia, Siberia and the Far East, and for the Arctic, with its reserves of hydrocarbons is developed.

That is, on a share of China Central Asia, perhaps, in exchange for concessions in the Middle East and in the Pacific region will get. And it can lead to the section of Eurasia that will be realized in shorter terms.

But not only military expenses, but also in general the budgetary expenses failed, and Russia passed to a rigid regime of economy. The western community carries out system work on blocking of the Russian export, on all clusters and the directions.

The section of Eurasia, most likely, will become one of the global main directions of policy of China and the USA, and also their partners. Russia became another and more to the period of wellbeing won’t return. It is necessary «to sell out» Eurasia, in parts and in general.

Maybe it sounds paradoxically, but probably Russian nation isn’t capable and has any more no desire to hold control over Eurasia though it never was. Eurasia was always heavy freight for the Russian nation.

About the Armenian-Russian joint force of troops.

Creation of the Armenian-Russian joint force of troops will give a new impulse to interaction between two countries which develops both in a bilateral format, and within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In the Armenian-Russian joint force of troops will enter part 102 of the Russian military base in the city of Gyumri, the Russian Air Force base Erebuni (Yerevan) and 4 – йthe VS army case of Armenia located in Vayk on border with Nakhichevan (the autonomous republic of Azerbaijan). The general the number of the Armenian-Russian joint force of troops will be to make 9,5 thousand soldiers and officers, 280 tanks and SAU, 120 units of SZO «Hail-GRAD», 155 BMP, 30 MI 8, MI 25, 12 helicopters of the SU planes 24 and SU 25, 10 MIG 29. It is group it is created for opposition of possible aggression from Azerbaijan and Turkey. In Nakhichevan since 2014 it was created three military bases under complete control and with participation of VS of Turkey. 90% of military instructors and officers of these bases were trained in Turkey and many of them have the Turkish passports. Creation of the Armenian-Russian joint force of troops can are dried to guarantees from Russia (it was declared by the President of Russia V. V. Putin on August 10 in St. Petersburg) if Armenia makes concessions in Nagorno-Karabakh.

About visit of the president of Turkey Recep Erdogan to Iran.

Visit of the president of Turkey Recep Erdogan to Iran will take place after visit to Turkey of the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the Vice President of the United States Joe Biden which will arrive to Ankara today, on August 21. The question of boundaries — the Syrian settlement at Erdogan and Rouhani’s negotiations will be the basic though she doesn’t advise strongly to be under a delusion in this occasion (See a photo). In spite of the fact that, at first sight, this coalition seems quite serious break, three leading countries really could make much on this direction, it is necessary to understand that each of them first of all concerning future development of Syria has own interests which not always coincide. Therefore if to speak about political aspects then, most likely, it will be a question of the Kurdish question, and, actually, this subject already repeatedly rose at negotiations between leaders of Iran and Turkey. Kurds both for Ankara, and for Tehran are that force which can potentially lead to disintegration and their states and including Syria. First of all Turkey tries to reboot the relations with Iran. During Erdogan’s visit the question and economic cooperation will also be brought up. After removal of sanctions Iran became very perspective market for the Turkish business, and Ankara will try to occupy the niche there. And from the point of view of Iran, Turkey is interesting as the market to supply of energy resources and transit of the Iranian gas to Europe.

Tehran and Ankara discuss about transit of the Iranian gas to Europe.

Iran will press Russia in the gas market. Erdogan can open to Iran an oil window to Europe. At the end of August the president of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan will arrive with official visit to Iran. The key purpose of visit – discussion of prospects of transit of the Iranian gas to Europe through the Turkish territory. Gas export in the EU allowed Tehran to adjust removal of sanctions in the future. In turn, Turkey will be able to strengthen positions as regional power «hub» and one of the main transitors of natural gas on the European direction.

We will remind: Ankara now buys from Tehran about 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year. The Iranian gas comes to Turkey on the pipeline Tabriz-Ankara with a capacity of 14 billion cubic meters a year. However this highway was planned as part of more large-scale project – the 37 billion cubic meters Pars pipeline which had to connect the South Pars field with Europe through Turkey, Greece and Italy.

Further, as it was planned, the gas pipeline had to be divided into two branches. On a northern branch the Iranian gas would go to Germany, Austria and Switzerland. On the southern – to France and Spain.

The Pars project was shelved because of the sanctions inflicted on Tehran. But now, seemingly, can return to it. According to the experts, by 2020 Iran will be able to get to 215 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year, and to export – to 35 billion cubic meters, including to 20 billion cubic meters – to Europe. Iran can deliver gas to Turkey and other route – on the Transanatoliysky gas pipeline (TANAP) which is under construction now on which are going to transport gas from the Azerbaijani field Shah-Denise on border of Turkey with Europe. The other day it became known that the Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR considers the offer on sale to Iran of part of the share in TANAP. So, Europe really not for long to wait for the Iranian gas. The emergence prospect in Europe of the Iranian gas corrects the Russian plans. In fact, «Gazprom» can lose a fair share of the European market – of those 20 billion a cube. gas m which through Turkey Iran is ready to deliver. Tehran was helped by the conflict in Ukraine, about it experts of our Academy of Geopolitics gave the assessment: «Crisis in Ukraine secret services of NATO» created https://topwar .ru/46632-krizis-v-ukraine-sozdali-sekretnye-sluzhby-nato.html and «Crisis in Ukraine: ways of recovery from the crisis» http://russmir.info/eko/5559-krizis-na-ukraine-puti-vyhoda-iz-krizisa.html . In September, 2014 the president Hassan Rouhani, during a meeting on fields of General Assembly of the UN in New York, declared to the Austrian colleague Heinz Fischer that Iran is ready to offer Europe «the reliable source of gas possessing high potential». And in the EU leaders didn’t hide earlier that study alternative options to reduce dependence on supply of the Russian natural gas. But Russia the Iranian-Turkish gas pipeline obviously not on a hand.

Iran on reserves of gas takes the second place in the world after Russia. Europeans with pleasure would begin to buy the Iranian gas. But also in this case there are questions: how many natural gas and in what terms could deliver Tehran? Now, I will remind, deliveries go only to Turkey, and they not too big on volumes. Thus regularly there are explosions of the gas pipeline Iran-Turkey – speak, it is blown up by the Kurdish separatists. Hardly the situation will become stabler …

As far as Erdogan’s strategy will be long-term, will depend on a position of the USA and EU countries because against crisis of the relations with the West quite logically that Erdogan looks for allies in the region, and the main of them really are large world powers — Russia and Iran, look in more detail here: «Turkey renamed «Dzhebkhat An-Nusry» on «Jhebkhat-Fatkh-ash-Sham» —http://russmir.info/pol/7573-turciya-pereimenovala-dzhebhat-an-nusra-v-dzhebhat-fath-ash-sham.html.

Arayik Sargsyan, the academician, the Honourable Consul of Macedonia in Armenia, the president of Academy of Geopolitics.

 

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