Today the Islamic Republic of Iran goes through an important stage of development, which is characterized by consolidating Tehran’s positions in regional and international policy. The developments round nuclear programme of Iran show that the international community cannot stop Iran’s nuclear researches and development of the technologies which may bring to turning Iran into the nuclear state. The Republic of Armenia by its participation in the regional processes is also involved in the important developments: the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations, the negotiations on the NKR issue, active foreign policy, the strengthening of the allied relations with Russia, the deepening of the relations with US, France, EU, China and a number of other states and organizations playing an important role. Despite the rearrangements in the region the relations with Iran are of special significance for Armenia. Their course has stirred up recently, because the 20 years old RA-IRI relations has acquired rather serious economic impulse in recent years, and the activation of Iran in the settlement of the NKR conflict give an importance of new political character to Yerevan-Tehran relations. Below we cover some main issues of the Armenian-Iranian relationship. The possible mediation of Iran in the negotiations round the NKR Over the last month Iran put forward a claim on its more active participation in the regional processes. The willingness of Tehran to render assistance in the process of settlement of the NKR conflict, which was expressed for several times to Yerevan and Baku in 2009, in 2010 transformed into the official offer to become the mediator at the negotiations and conflict settlement. According to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Mottaki, Tehran presented to Yerevan and Baku the proposals regarding the issue of the NKR, which are, most probably, restricted to the offer to hold the negotiations in the format of the Ministers of the Foreign Affairs. The revealing of the reasons for such activation is rather important and it must be considered in order to understand the aspirations of Iran in the process of the settlement of the NKR issue. The activation of Iran in the direction of the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has several reasons among which the followings are the main: 1. Though Tehran-Yerevan and Tehran-Baku relationships, in first case are rather developed and in the second case are at least normal, Tehran knows nothing about the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk group. Iran’s information about the nature and results of the process of negotiations is surface, because neither Armenia and Azerbaijan nor the OSCE Minks group co-chairmen inform Tehran about the course and the real content of the negotiations. Under such conditions Iran’s awareness of the issue of the NKR conflict settlement is mainly formed through the materials published in Armenian and Azerbaijani press, opinions expressed by different analysts, political (including oppositional) figures. And in recent year they mainly state that Armenians and Azerbaijanis are close to the resolution of the conflict. And in this case it not important how close they are to the reality. The point is that Tehran start taking seriously the possibility of the settlement of conflict in the near future and bothers that such a settlement may bring to the weakening of its positions which makes Iran seek the means of becoming a part of the negotiations process and aspire to minimize the possible losses. 2. The second crucial reason is the activation of Turkey in the region. Though in the recent period the thaw in the relation between Tehran and Ankara can be observed, Iran regarded and regards Turkey in a long-term perspective as the main competitor in spreading influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. In this aspect the constant statements by Turkey that the OSCE Minsk group has run it course arouse the suspicion of Iran that Ankara tends to undertake the mission of the new mediator in the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. It is obvious that Yerevan will never allow such mediation but the line of Baku and Ankara pursued against the Minsk group makes Tehran try to participate in the process of the creation of the “new mediation” format. The fact that Baku responded positively to the proposal of Iran never means that Iran has made friends with Azerbaijan. But it also does not mean that taking into consideration the strategic relations with Tehran Yerevan have to respond positively to the Iranian proposal. The positive respond of Baku to Tehran’s proposal is most probably conditioned not by the fact that Azerbaijan, with the help of the IRI may obtain the result it wants, but by the fact that by this means Baku wants to affect “mediation monopoly” of the OSCE Minsk group. The first IRI-RA-AR negotiations will cast a blow to the positions of the OSCE Minsk group and found Baku to draw Turkey into the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution. Taking into consideration all the aforementioned, it is necessary to say that Tehran’s proposals cannot be regarded as promising for the RA. The main issues of the trade and economic relations After the finishing of the building of Armenia-Iran gas pipeline Armenian-Iranian relations entered a new stage which is characterized by the activation of the economic factor. Though Armenia imports gas from Russia on unprecedentedly low price and Iran does not supply gas to Armenia yet, the gas pipeline is of great strategic importance for Armenia, because it solves a number of paramount problems: 1. The option to the import of gas through the territory of Georgia is created which provides our energy security in case of new destabilization in the South Caucasus. 2. It makes possible for Armenia to increase the capacity of the electricity produced by using the imported natural gas. The last circumstance is important for Armenia as it will allow increasing the capacity of the electricity exported to Iran and creating potential for working up electricity market of Turkey which will be opened sooner or later. The 5th powerful and modern power-generating unit of the Hrazdan Thermal Power Plant which will have been put into commission by the end of this year, will even strengthen the energy security of the RA, and the electricity produced there, most probably, will be exported to Iran and will expand our national companies’ share in the Iranian market. And it is growing invariably: despite the policy of the Iranian authorities the electricity consumption in the country continues to grow. In 2009 it accounted for 4.2% growth which is very high performance (rate). The project of building of the hydropower plant at the Araks River, which will be implemented in the years to come, is also an important component of the Armenian-Iranian economic relations. But the biggest and the most ambitious programme of the trade and economic sphere is the building of Armenia-Iran railway. There are a number of objective problems in the realization of this project which Armenia and Iran have to solve: 1. The problem of financing. The railway building expenses differ depending on the region where that construction works are done. Building of one kilometer of the railway in China or Russia costs from $1.5 to $12 million, in Switzerland it costs about $30 million. For our region the basic number may be considered the cost of one kilometer of Kezvin-Resht-Astara railway built at the territory of Iran - $14 million for 1 kilometer. According to most conservative estimates about 250km of the new railway is needed in order to set Armenia-Iran railway communications and the total cost of the project may reach $4 billion. It is high price and it will be rather difficult task to find such means. 2. The provision of the amount of the cargo transportation. The amount of the cargo transportation between the RA and Iran is rather low and it constitutes about 600 thousand tons annually. According to different analyses and data by logistic companies to provide the profitability of the new railway building 30.000 tons should go to every kilometer of the railway built. From this point of view to provide the profitability of Armenia-Iran railway building it is necessary to provide 7.5-8 million tons of cargo transportation which exceeds twice the annual amount of the cargo transportation of the RA and more than ten times the amount of the cargo transportation in Armenia-Iran direction. The second circumstance will be the main negative factor in finding the finances for the railway building. But, however, the process can acquire the positive course because technically the railway can provide the necessary amount of cargo transportation by serving the Persian Gulf – Black Sea transportation hub connecting those two regions with one common railway line. But for this Armenia and Iran will have to carry on active negotiations with the countries of the region which can use that new railway, i.e. India, Pakistan, Georgia, Ukraine, Romania, Russia and Bulgaria. During the visit of Serzh Sargsyan to China in May 2010 Beijing showed interest in the railway building programme that makes the PRC party interested in the railway building. Summing up one can mention that new sanctions may be imposed against Iran. In Armenia it is much spoken that it may affect the RA-IRI relations. But the exposure draft of the main package of sanctions tabled at the UN Security Council does not touch seriously the main spheres of the cooperation between the RA and IRI – energy, trade and transit cargo transportation. Thus, they will not affect seriously Armenian-Iranian relationship. Sevak Sarukhanyan

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