1in.am In a new analysis published from Baku, Andrew D’Aniere, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, describes the South Caucasus in terms of corridors, investments, and economic competition. TRIPP is presented in his article as a regional economic hub connected to the Middle Corridor, Central Asia, and American investment tools.
This perspective is significant precisely because of its scale. D’Aniere views these three directions—energy, transit, and capital—as interconnected components of a newly forming regional economic system. The planned corridor south of Armenia takes on a broad function within this picture. It can connect trade routes from the Caspian Sea to Turkish and European markets, while American financial participation could provide long-term political weight to the infrastructure. The author from the Atlantic Council directly suggests that Baku develop logistical projects with the U.S. that complement TRIPP and the logic of the Trans-Caspian Enterprise Fund.
Rarely in history have roads remained simply roads. The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 changed the main routes of international trade and quickly became part of the strategic calculations of great powers. The first post-war integration structure in Europe was also built around material interests: in 1951, six countries placed coal and steel production under common management to strengthen peace through economic interdependence.
The first practical layer of this logic is already taking shape in the South Caucasus. The peace agreement creates the political foundation, while trade, transit, energy connections, and investments transform it into a system of everyday interests. When goods, capital, and energy cross borders, peace ceases to be merely a diplomatic document and gains an economic basis.
One of D’Aniere’s notable observations pertains to Armenia’s purchases of small volumes of Azerbaijani oil and gas. He places this trade within the process of moving away from Russia’s energy dependence. This small volume movement demonstrates the potential for diversifying supply routes and the first elements of a new regional market.
The same terminology was used by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in his address on September 21. He linked TRIPP to economic connectivity, American investments, and new opportunities for Armenia and the entire region. Within American political and expert circles, TRIPP is gradually being perceived as a crucial link in broader regional connectivity and Western investment engagement.
For Armenia, this raises a fundamental question. For decades, the country’s geography has often been described through closed borders, blockades, and limited choices. New corridors could give that geography a different economic content. The area becomes active when goods, capital, energy, and data move across it. This movement also creates partners' interest in Armenia’s stability.
The logic of the Middle Corridor is precisely this. It is not just a road, but an entire chain of ports, railways, highways, customs systems, financing, insurance, and digital control. The geopolitical significance of TRIPP will depend on the degree of Armenia’s actual involvement in that chain. A simple transit route will provide limited economic benefit to Armenia. Real value will be created when production, services, investments, new jobs, and tax revenues are formed around it.
Armenia’s long-standing dependence on Russia has developed along several axes—energy, transport, markets, and security. The opening of new communications, supply sources, and investment directions is gradually changing that system. D’Aniere sees a similar reconfiguration for Azerbaijan as well, suggesting that Baku develop logistics and services with American capital to reduce dependence on the oil economy in the long term.
In this context, TRIPP is no longer just a road or railway project. It is becoming a link in the emerging economic space that connects Armenia and Azerbaijan with the Caspian basin, Central Asia, Turkey, European markets, and American capital.
The activation of this system could provide the most crucial support for peace—mutual and long-term economic benefit. A political agreement can be signed in one day, but its strength is formed through years of economic interconnection. The real weight of TRIPP, therefore, will be determined not by the length of the road, but by the value created within Armenia—through investments, production, services, jobs, and the growth of the country’s economic significance.
* This text was automatically translated by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
ENGLISH
