TIGRAN SARGSYAN: CURRENT FISCAL AND MONATRY POLCY WILL NOT
SUPRESS GROWTH
04-07-2008 17:15:00 | Armenia | Economy
Interview of Armenian prime minister Tigran Sargsian with
"Noyan Tapan" agency
YEREVAN, JULY 4, NOYAN TAPAN. Mr. Prime Minister. In one of
your speeches you said that in order to curb inflation the
government intends to increase budgetary revenues and reduce
expenditures. In this regard we ask you to answer the following
questions:
1. What have been the dynamics of revenues of the state
budget this year, especially in the past two months? Is there
any dependence between the dynamics of budgetary revenues and
the tax and customs administration reforms being implemented by
the government?
Tigran Sargsyan: The total amount of fiscal revenues in the
first half of 2008 made 284.4 billion drams (app. 939 million
U.S. dollars), which is 36 percent more than in the same period
of the last year. And collections have been growing from month
to month, whereas in January the fiscal revenues made 39.0
billion drams, they grew to 54.6 billion in May and 50.5 billion
in June. The overall collections of the last two months are thus
105 billion AMD, which is 27.8 billion more than the same period
a year ago.
So, revenue growth rate is maintained, and it is evidently
due to improvement in tax and custom administration. As for the
dependence of budgetary revenue dynamics on the government
reforms, in our opinion, it will have its impact. Nevertheless,
it is early to translate our assessment to the language of
figures.
2. As regards expenditures, so far a prospect of their
growth rather than reduction has been seen, as three new
standing committees are being formed at the National Assembly
and a new ministry - at the government. Under such conditions,
at the expense of what expense items can the government reduce
its expenditures? Is it possible to use a restriction at the
expense of investment (infrastructural) expenditures?
Tigran Sargsyan: The expenditure restriction policy means
that ?ll other things being equal, restrictions on their growth
should be used.
As for the three new standing committees to be created at
the National Assembly and a new ministry at the government, it
will not be done by means of reducing expenses in any other
sphere.
It should be mentioned for comparison that according to the
already developed 2009-2011 draft medium-term expenditure
program of the RA, the growth of expenditures on state
government bodies (along with the indicated changes) makes 10.8%
in conditions of 15.2% growth of overall expenditures, while the
growth of expenditures in branches of the prioritized social
sector will be noticeably greater: it will make 22.1% in
education, 21.7% in health care, and 16.3% in social protection.
3. The above mentioned political line of the government and
the gradually tightening monetary and policy of the Central Bank
of Armenia (CBA) may have a negative impact on the economic
development of the country. By the data of May, there was almost
no growth in industry and agriculture. Does the government
expect a change in GDP growth envisaged for this year?
Tigran Sargsyan: The growth in industry and agriculture in
January-May 2008 was not high, however, construction and
services played a great role in ensuring an economic growth
which made 9.8% in the indicated period. Taking into account
also the fact that in Armenia, usually only about 22% of the
gross domestic product is produced in the first five months,
while the economic growth trends are accelerating by the end of
a year, the existing trends show that the 10% economic growth
level, which was envisaged for 2008 and forms the basis of the
state budget program, is within reach - taking also into
consideration the relatively restricting nature (anticipated for
the second half of 2008) of the fiscal and monetary policies.
As regards the alternative between inflation and economic
growth, it is no secret that in conditions of accelerating
inflationary rates which in turn increase the expectations of
future inflation, the long-term economic growth is virtually
endangered. International experience shows that in such a
situation countries set anchoring high inflationary expectations
as a priority task, and imply restraining fiscal and monetary
policies so that they will ensure - through achieving a
macroeconomic stability - an environment necessary for a
long-term economic growth in the future. The Armenian government
and the CBA have adopted such an approach but they attach
importance to the scale of restraining policies in this issue:
they should not result in a considerable decline of GDP growth
rates. In particular, with respect to the fiscal policy, it was
estimated that in 2008 the proposed inflation curbing policy
will not, hinder economic development, while freezing inflation
expectations, and not to feed inflation (and inflation
expectations) with an excessive demand growth.