1in.am The latest data on Armenia's foreign trade shows that the geography of the country's economic ties is changing.
This trend has not yet changed the structure of Armenia's economy, but it is already altering the balance of its economic pillars.
In the first eight months of this year, exports from Armenia to Russia amounted to 1 billion 652 million dollars, which is about 165 million less than the same period last year. During the same time, exports to the European Union reached 650 million dollars, increasing by about 260 million.
The numbers already indicate the main trend: the volume lost in the Russian market is being compensated by growth in the European direction.
For decades, the Russian market has been the main and most accessible direction for Armenian exports, thanks to a common language, a familiar business environment, old logistical ties, a large Armenian community, and relatively mild market demands. This convenience has over time also turned into deep economic dependence.
This convenience provided stable sales for many years, but it also tied Armenian exports too closely to one market.
Now that dependence has begun to gradually weaken, while the geography of Armenian exports is expanding.
Bulgaria is the leader in European exports this year, with around 185 million dollars. The growth is nearly fivefold. The main product is copper ore, accounting for about 180 million dollars in the first half of the year alone.
Belgium has purchased goods worth about 145 million dollars from Armenia in eight months. Molybdenum concentrate and zinc ore make up a large part of this flow.
The basis of exports to the Netherlands is iron and steel. Germany is buying aluminum foil, men's clothing, canned goods, and alcoholic beverages. Italian markets already have a significant presence of Armenian textile products, especially women's and men's coats. In the first half of the year, around 20 million dollars worth of women's coats and 11 million dollars worth of men's coats reached Italy.
This picture already shows the new directions of Armenian exports.
Armenia is entering Europe through several different doors. The mining industry has opened the path to Bulgaria and Belgium. Metallurgy has opened the way to the Netherlands. Light industry has opened doors to Germany and Italy.
This change does not yet signify a deep transformation. The majority of European exports continue to be formed from raw materials and metals, which limits the quality of growth and Armenia's profit from international trade.
But the change in trade geography is already a fact, and this is happening in a certain political environment.
Moscow has repeatedly shown in recent years that the market can also be used as a foreign policy tool. The entry of agricultural products, brandy, and other goods into the Russian market is periodically subjected to administrative restrictions. The price of gas has also become a subject of public political discussion.
In this context, the diversification of exports is not just an issue of economic efficiency; it is a matter of national security.
The political freedom of a small state also depends on how diverse its economic ties are.
When a large part of exports is concentrated in one market, economic dependence easily acquires political significance. In that case, customs restrictions or import bans can serve not only economic but also political purposes.
Armenia's experience in recent years has already provided several clear examples of this.
The European market is simply not another address for Armenian products. It demands higher quality from the producer, clear standards, stable supply, and competitive prices. These demands complicate entry but at the same time force a change in the quality of production in Armenia itself.
Therefore, it is not only the increase of 260 million dollars in exports that is important here. More importantly, the Armenian economy is gradually moving away from the logic of being overly dependent on the Russian market.
The next issue is the structure of exports. The growth of raw materials and metals provides important revenue, but long-term advantages can come from finished products, the food industry, pharmaceuticals, technologies, and other sectors that create high added value.
Only then will the change in trade geography transform into a qualitative change in the economy.
Today's figures are still just the beginning of that journey. But when the country's export map changes, the boundaries of its economic and foreign policy freedom also gradually change.
* This text was automatically translated by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
