YEREVAN, DECEMBER 25, NOYAN TAPAN. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) has calculated the composite economic indices of the 4th quarter of 2007 as compared with the previous quarter and the 4th quarter of 2006. NT was informed by the CBA press center that the business environment index made 92.1% in the 4th quarter on the 3rd quarter of 2007 and 98.1% on the 4th quarter of 2006; the eonomic activity indices made 78.6% and 84.3% respectively; and the consumer confidence indices made 92.6% and 96.5% respectively. 844 organizations in industry, construction and the service sector were studied by the selection principle with the aim of calculating the composite economic indices of the 4th quarter of 2007. Besides, 2,961 households were surveyed in Yerevan and all Armenian marzes. Serveys were conducted via the Internet, phone, letters and facsimile. The business environment index was calculated by averaging the organizations's estimates concerning risks and changes in the overall economic situation, the economic activity index was calculated by averaging the organizations' expectations concerning output, demand for products and services and their stocks. The consumer confidence index was calculated by averaging the estimates concerning households' incomes, domestic expenses, employment and the current economic conditions. The questions were of qualitative character: the answer choices were "grew", "remained unchanged" and "declined". Based on these answers, the share of each version in the total number of answers is calculted, then the percentage of positive answers is added to half the percentage of neutral answers and the balances of answers are obtained. The values of these balances range from 0 to 100. The value over 50 shows a positive tendency of the observed phenomenon, that below 50 - a negative tendency, while 50 means an unchanged situation.

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